What was plan B?

On February 24, 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine.  By all reports, Putin believed that it would take three days to conquer the country.  Two weeks tops.  The war is currently in its fourth week.

It appears that the Ukrainians were far better trained, better equipped and more determined to resist Russia then they ever imagined.

Meanwhile thousands of Ukrainians are sheltering in subways.  When asked why, one said: "We don't know what to do, should we make a run for the train station or should we stay here?  Maybe it will be over tomorrow."

Anyone who teaches strategic planning for a living knows that when you make a plan, you need to also consider the potential unforeseen consequences of that plan and make contingency plans for that scenario as well. 

To quote Ben Franklin: "Fail to plan, plan to fail."

Gaming simulations have been popular since the mid-90's.  And while I wouldn't expect a Ukrainian civilian to have played one, I am a bit puzzled by the fact that Putin apparently didn't either.

Why do you think Putin didn't have a Plan B - i.e. a plan for what to do if his initial actions were unsuccessful?  Was he overconfident?  Poorly advised?  Or was it something else?  Remember all decisions are emotional.

Why do you think so many Ukrainians didn't have a Plan B and thus have ended up sheltering in places like subways?  Did they think the invasion warnings were fake news?  Did they have nowhere to go?  Or was it something else?  Decision-making under stress is tricky.

 

 

Ranked voting = too many choices

 

Decision-making is hard.  One of the things that makes it harder is too many choices. 

 

This year, NYC introduced a ranked voting system.  That means that instead of making one choice for each position, voters can now make up to five choices in order of preference. 

 

Each of those is in fact a separate decision.  And you don't have to vote for five if you don't want to.  Lots of choices.  Maybe too many.  That makes me wonder if people who have trouble deciding might just opt out all together.

 

One would expect this to be a high turnout election with the mayor's job up for grabs.  So it will be interesting to see how it goes.  If turnout isn't strong, I would suspect ranked voting is the reason why.

 

Too many choices = letting someone else decide for you.

If I give you a doughnut will you get vaccinated?

 

Big news.  Krispy Kreme is offering a free original glazed doughnut to anyone who presents a valid Covid-19 vaccination card.  Yum.  They're my favorites.

That's on top of giving away "more than 30 million doughnuts to healthcare workers, first responders, teachers, coaches, graduating seniors and more" in 2020.

No wonder we're all gaining weight during Covid.

They are also offering employees four hours of paid time off to get vaccinated. (Ellwanger, 2021)

In a recent survey, Pew Research found that 30% of Americans do not intend to get vaccinated.  That translates into 76.5 million adults.  Typically only 43.6 million would shun a vaccine. 

So what's going on here?

When asked why they would not be getting a vaccine, this is what they said:

·         89% are worried about side effects

·         85% said they thought the vaccines were developed and tested too quickly

·         80% said they wanted more information about how well the vaccines work

·         74% said they feel alarmed after seeing too many mistakes made by the medical system in the past

·         68% said they didn't think they needed the vaccine

 

Where does "being afraid of needles" fit in?

According to a research study from University of Michigan, 20% - 30% of adults studied cited concern about needles, ranging from mild anxiety to a phobia strong enough to keep some from seeking medical care.

And for those folks, billboards with oversized photos of needles may be the force that is driving them away. (Appleby, 2021)

What do you think?  Are the reasons people stated in the poll accurate?  Or is it all about fear?  What can we do to encourage these people to get the Covid-19 vaccine? Will doughnuts do the trick?

 

Ellwanger, S. (2021, March 23)  Krispy Kreme Spreads 'Sweet Support' To Vaccine Recipients.  mediapost.com.  Retrieved March 23, 2021, from https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/361634/krispy-kreme-spreads-sweet-support-to-vaccine-re.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline&utm_campaign=121816&hashid=ybq2buULrntyGS6NfbELk0afrrI

Villarreal, D. (2021, March 5)  57% of Those Who Won't Get COVID Vaccine Say They Generally Avoid Them: Poll.  newsweek.com.  Retrieved March 23, 2021, from  https://www.newsweek.com/57-those-who-wont-get-covid-vaccine-say-they-generally-avoid-them-poll-1574195

Appleby, J. (2021, March 8)  Fear of needles may keep many people away from Covid vaccines.  nbcnews.com.  Retrieved Match 23, 2021, from  https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fear-needles-may-keep-many-people-away-covid-vaccines-n1259773

 

Fear is a powerful motivator.

Bad is stronger than good.  Bad emotions have more impact than good ones.  Bad information is processed more thoroughly than good information.  And bad impressions and stereotypes are quicker to form and more resistant to change than are good ones.  (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer & Vohs, 2001)

2020 has been a very bad year.  As someone pointed out -- 1918 + 1929 + 1968 = 2020.  In other words, the US is facing a pandemic - like we did in 1918, an economic depression - like we did in 1929 and race riots like we did in 1968.  All at the same time.

With so much to be afraid of, how will people react?

Typically, people react to fear by envisioning the worst possible outcomes and making risk-adverse choices.  (Chanel & Chichilnisky, 2009)

Trump thinks this will work in his favor.  But who in their right mind would want four more years of this?

Only 61.4% of eligible Americans voted in 2016.  Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million.  The presidential election is 153 days away.  Interesting times indeed.

Baumeister, R., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer, F. & Vohs, K. (2001)  Bad Is Stronger Than Good.  Review of General Psychology.  Retrieved May 29, 2016, from http://dev.rickhanson.net/wp-content/files/papers/BadStrongerThanGood.pdf

Chanel, O. & Chichilnisky, G. (2009, December) The Influence of Fear in Decisions: Experimental Evidence. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty.  Retrieved June 3, 2020, from https://chichilnisky.com/pdfs/Chanel_Chichilnisky_Influence_of_fear_in_decision_Definitive%20FINAL.pdf