My new normal: Buying a spool of thread online

One of the great things about living in NYC is that we still have retail stores.  Or at least we did.  It's hard to say what will happen post-Covid, because so many of them were so severely undercapitalized to begin with. 

And then there's the fact that the Republicans gamed the bailout money to favor their buddies.  How exactly did the Lakers - a $4.4. billion dollar operation qualify for a small business loan in the first place?  More importantly would they, Shake Shack, and Ruth's Chris have returned the money they got if the press hadn't outed them?  I doubt it.  COVID-19 has made it clear just how selfish Americans are.  Especially the rich ones. (Hansen, 2020)

So will the specialty sewing stores in NYC reopen someday?  Maybe.  But I needed some thread now for homemade masks and online was my only option.  I found a wonderful company named Thread Art through Walmart and few days later my thread arrived.

Now the question is what will I do the next time I need thread?  Online or in-store?  Quite frankly, I will go back to the stores once they reopen.  It's easier to pick the correct color in person. :-)

But some of my other new habits may stick.  Research says that it takes three months to learn a new habit.  And I suspect that it will be at least three months before we are able to move on from COVID-19.  So some of those new habits are likely to become permanent, although it's difficult to predict which ones.

It seems unlikely that toilet paper sales will continue to be up 65% forever.  But it's equally unlikely that sales of cleaning products will go down to where they once were.  Having tasted the convenience of ordering online, many will never buy their toiletries in person again.

Whatever does happen, one thing is clear, things won't go back to the way they were.  We all need to accept that and move on - even if it means buying things that cost less than $5 online from now on.

Hansen, S. (2020, April 28)  Potbelly, Shake Shack, The Lakers: Here Are All The Companies Returning PPP Money After Public Backlash.  forbes.com.  Retrieved April 29, 2020, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/04/28/here-are-all-the-companies-returning-ppp-money-after-public-backlash/#20cfcc2b299c

Who are you staying home for?

On April 8th in conjunction with a #stayhome order, the state of New York began a social media campaign - Who are you staying home for?  Launched with celebrity fanfare, it points out that all of us probably have someone over 60 that we care about enough to make sacrifices for. (Gannon, 2020)

Most New Yorker's responded appropriately and stayed home.  As a result, as of April 18th, both new infections and deaths are declining daily.

Which begs the question - what's going on in Florida, Georgia and all the other states reopening that haven't even hit peak yet?  It's hard to believe that people in those states don't care about anyone over 60.  So there must be another explanation.

And there is.  These are the people who believed Trump when he said the virus was a hoax.  (Palma, 2020)

In a February 28th rally in South Carolina, a mere five days after the Chinese closed Wuhan, Trump was out there with his fake news.  He told people that COVID-19 was no worse than the flu, and that the Democrats were exaggerating its fatality to make him look bad. 

You have to give him credit.  He knows the importance of speaking first.

Humans are hard-wired to believe that what they hear is true.  So they believe the first thing they hear about a topic regardless of its source or validity.  And once they believe something is true, they only listen to new data that supports their belief while discounting data that contradicts it.  That's why fake news can be so deadly.

It's also the reason why a Washington state group is suing Fox News and Rupert Murdoch for "deceptive" coronavirus coverage.  The group is requesting an injunction to bar the network from "interfering with reasonable and necessary measures to contain the virus by publishing further false and deceptive content." (Derysh, 2020)

Fox News' response - free speech. 

Really?  They must have missed the part about not yelling fire in a crowded theatre.  And just because they are pushing Trump's agenda, do they think this gives them a license to kill?  Because that is exactly what they are doing.

A recent study showed that watching Sean Hannity is particularly bad for your health.  A comparison in mid-March of his fan base with Tucker Carlson's showed approximately 30% more COVID-19 cases in areas that preferred Hannity.  Not surprisingly an increase in the death rate followed three weeks later. (Derysh, 2020)

To make matters worse, Trump is now actively encouraging people to ignore lockdown.  Perhaps it's time to add him to the list of defendants.  The rest of us will continue staying home for someone we love.

Gannon, D. (2020, April 8)  J. Lo and A-Rod help Governor Cuomo launch ‘stay home’ social media campaign.  6sqft.com.  Retrieved April 22, 2020, from https://www.6sqft.com/cuomo-launches-stay-home-social-media-campaign/

Palma, B. (2020, March 2) Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a ‘Hoax’?  snopes.com.  Retrieved April 22, 2020, from  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-remark/

Derysh, I. (2020, April 7)  Washington state group sues Fox News and Rupert Murdoch over its "deceptive" coronavirus coverage.  salon.com.  Retrieved April 22, 2020, from

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/07/washington-state-group-sues-fox-news-and-rupert-murdoch-over-its-deceptive-coronavirus-coverage/

Derysh (2020, April 21) Viewers of Sean Hannity more likely to die from COVID-19 than those of Tucker Carlson: study.  salon.com.  Retrieved April 22, 2020, from https://www.salon.com/2020/04/21/viewers-of-sean-hannity-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-of-tucker-carlson-study/

You can't restart the economy when people are still scared.

Trump seems to think that he can arbitrarily announce the economy is open and everyone will start going out again.  Good luck with that.

Fear is a powerful motivator.  Bad emotions have more impact than good ones.  Bad information is processed more thoroughly than good.  Bad impressions and stereotypes are quicker to form and more resistant to change.  (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer, and Vohs, 2001)

We are hard-wired to remember bad events more than good ones, reliving them over and over again in our minds in an effort to make sure we don't repeat our mistakes. (Kensinger, 2007)

So how can a random statement from a habitual liar make any difference at all?  The answer is that it can't.

The only way to restart the economy is to make people feel safe again.  And that's only going to happen when those death curves decline significantly.  But as soon as people start to go out again they will begin to rise.  So lifting "stay home" now could actually make the economy worse in the long run.

You can't tell people how to feel and right now they afraid.

Baumeister, R., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer, F., Vohs, K. (2001)  Bad Is Stronger Than Good.  Review of General Psychology.  Retrieved May 29, 2016, from http://dev.rickhanson.net/wp-content/files/papers/BadStrongerThanGood.pdf

Kensinger, E. (2007) Negative Emotion Enhances Memory Accuracy.  Association for Psychological Science.  Retrieved May 30, 2016, from https://www2.bc.edu/elizabeth-kensinger/Kensinger_CD07.pdf

No. Worrying won't help.

As we all try to deal with the reality of COVID-19, it's difficult not to be afraid.  Does it help to know that our brains are hard wired to focus on the negative?  

Research shows that our strongest memories are those that are associated with emotion.  And that negative emotions are more powerful and more memorable than positive ones.

Since the primary function of emotion is to guide action and plan for future occurrences, it makes sense that we would remember the bad more than the good since we don't want to repeat our mistakes. (Kensinger, 2007)

But, there's more to it than just that.

Thanks to our preference for using comparisons in decision-making, we are also subject to "concept creep." (Levari, 2018)

That's when we continually lower the bar for what's making us worry.  So while at first you might have been worried if you didn't wear a mask when you went out, now with the continual onslaught of bad news, you might be too worried to go out at all.  Despite the fact that nothing has actually changed.  Because what has changed is your belief about what constitutes dangerous behavior. And that operates on a sliding scale.

A while back, my brother spent the afternoon with Tom Lehrer, and Tom told him this joke...  

A man on death row was on his way to be executed.  As he and the guard walked down the hallway together, the guard asked him "Are you worried?"  And the prisoner replied "Why? Would it help?"

Every time I start to worry I remember that joke, take a deep breath, and soldier on. Give it a try.  It might help. :-)

Kensinger, E. (2007) Negative Emotion Enhances Memory Accuracy.  Association for Psychological Science.  Retrieved May 30, 2016, from https://www2.bc.edu/elizabeth-kensinger/Kensinger_CD07.pdf

Levari, D. (2018, June 28)  Why your brain never runs out of problems to find.  theconversation.com.  Retrieved April 8, 2020, from https://theconversation.com/why-your-brain-never-runs-out-of-problems-to-find-98990