On February 24, 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine. By all reports, Putin believed that it would take three days to conquer the country. Two weeks tops. The war is currently in its fourth week.
It appears that the Ukrainians were far better trained, better equipped and more determined to resist Russia then they ever imagined.
Meanwhile thousands of Ukrainians are sheltering in subways. When asked why, one said: "We don't know what to do, should we make a run for the train station or should we stay here? Maybe it will be over tomorrow."
Anyone who teaches strategic
planning for a living knows that when you make a plan, you need to also
consider the potential unforeseen consequences of that plan and make
contingency plans for that scenario as well.
To quote Ben Franklin: "Fail to plan, plan to fail."
Gaming simulations have been popular since the mid-90's. And while I wouldn't expect a Ukrainian civilian to have played one, I am a bit puzzled by the fact that Putin apparently didn't either.
Why do you think Putin didn't have a Plan B - i.e. a plan for what to do if his initial actions were unsuccessful? Was he overconfident? Poorly advised? Or was it something else? Remember all decisions are emotional.
Why do you think so many Ukrainians didn't have a Plan B and thus have ended up sheltering in places like subways? Did they think the invasion warnings were fake news? Did they have nowhere to go? Or was it something else? Decision-making under stress is tricky.
9 comments:
I think that often, people do not want to think about what the worst-case scenario could be. People in Ukraine surely did not want to imagine that something like this would be happening. I think that when all you do is think about the what ifs and the maybes, life can be very scary. While this was a possibility for Russia to invade, again, I am sure that families did not want to put that at the top of their brains to constantly live in fear. Now, here they are, just doing the best they can to get through these terrifying times and push forward. I think it is so easy from the outside to ask why were they not ready but it is also important to step back and think about it from their perspective.
In regards to Putin, I think that he did not have a Plan B because he feels like an incredibly powerful individual who will win, no matter the price. With a disregard for any sort of human life. Going into it with this mindset, nothing would stand in his way and the idea of the plan going any differently was most likely not what he wanted to spend his time planning for. I think that there are certain people who simply live so much in their own world that the idea of Plan B is not even there.
Shohei Ishikawa
I recently listened to a Japanese podcast that talks about many different things. The commentator was talking about the situation with Russia and Putin. I heard that President Putin does not use any internet at all (a little bit questionable). He continued and stated that everything he hears is from his secretaries. Therefore, his source of information is very limited and biased. In addition, when the French president talked with Putin, I heard that the French president felt odd after their conversation. He believes that Putin suffers some sort of disease. Therefore, the commentator believes that Putin cannot make the right decision because of his health situation and lack of his information. The commentator has never lied on what he states; while there is no evidence that I can support his statement, I still believe him from my experience. Therefore, I believe that Putin's failure is coming from poor advice, lack of information, and overconfidence.
In addition, I also believe that most Ukrainians did not have Plan B because they did not think the war would happen. I also believe so because of the world today. Since we live in a global world, we can see the consequences of starting the new war now. If they thought they would have the war, I believe that Ukrainians would have prepared for it and know what to do. In addition, I do not think they thought the invasion warning was fake news; they were optimistic about it, like "it cannot be that bad." I also believe that they have the option to go somewhere because I saw some people going to other countries. The reason why they go under the train is because of fear and hope. I believe that some people are in despair, and people cannot move in the situation; they feel at least safe in the metro.
I never thought this war would happen considering living in 2022. This war is something that people didn't expect it to happen because the idea of war is in the past. Putin didn't have a plan B because of his status and ego. His net worth is over billions and there are constantly people telling him he could do whatever he wants. There might have been people who encouraged him to invade Ukraine because he can do it without any issues. It's extremely clear that he didn't have plan b because not only his main concern is other world leaders stopping him but also the elites of Russia. A group of Russian elites is allegedly conspiring to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin and their main reason is to restore economic ties. Another reason he didn't have a plan B would be Swiss freezing Russian assets that belong to politicians and oligarchs. Many other countries are also freezing Russian assets and detaining yachts owned by them. When someone like Putin decide to start a war you need to have many plans a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h, i,j,k,l,m,n,o,p set up in place in order to be successful in any war. Many Ukrainians didn't think this would happen because it's something they thoughtt they deal with it. There has always been tension between these countries throughout the years. The Ukrainian government should have some sort of drill or public announcement about what its citizens should do in case of an emergency ever since what happened in 2014. I think the government skip to create plans and their main focus was jumping to conclusions on ways to stop a war and creating allies with other countries. The Ukraine president's main goal should be right now never letting Russia know their next move. The Ukrainian government is kinda all over the place and I feel like they don't have a specific idea on ways to help their citizens.
I think that, as much as people may see or learn of violent or senseless events that unfold and go down in history such as wars, or even contagion events like pandemics, people never take true heed of these matters or prepare for them enough. It is almost as if people suppress the notion that such events could occur to or directly impact them and play out in the present time of their lives. I believe it is an emotional response, almost like a coping mechanism, and thus, an emotional decision to ignore grave issues until they are directly at hand.
This applies to both the invader of Ukraine and those affected in Ukraine right now.
Putin was overconfident in invading Ukraine and to me, it seems as though he imagined he could conquer Ukraine easily and efficiently, and prove to the world just how powerful and frightening he could be. By the way his idea of timing has backfired, it is clear Putin had no real plan in the first place, let alone a plan B, and that war and invasion are taken lightly by him.
As for the Ukrainians, they did not have a plan B because of their emotional responses of disbelief as to whether the war would actually commence. People do not want to believe that something so senseless and horrific can happen, especially so drastically. The Ukrainians wanted to believe that life would go on as normal and I think that is a very human response. Sheltering in subways is now their physical way of coping and surviving as they remain hopeful that life can go back to normal sooner rather than later. For some, they may have nowhere else to go, but for others, it is also a means of staying sheltered but not too far from home, and thus, a means of hope and deep emotional resilience.
- Nomi Q.
I believe the reason why Putin didn’t have a backup plan in case he was unsuccessful is because he probably trusted the vast size of Russia and his army more than he should have. As the leader of the world’s biggest country with a population of 144.1 million people, Putin is an extremely powerful person, which is why he might have overestimated his ability to invade another country. Clearly, it was not as easy as he thought. While he might be a powerful leader, that is no evidence for having good war strategies as well as coordinating an army, thus he went into war with an overconfident manner and ended up having to sacrifice more force and time than he initially anticipated.
In terms of Ukrainians, it can be said that they were not expecting such a terrifying war, especially considering the modern era we live in. This is not unique to Ukrainians, as most of us haven’t witnessed the extreme circumstances and fear war spreads among people since we only get to read about them in books. Thus, it is normal for them to be caught off guard. The Ukrainian government was probably in a similar situation and was not quick enough to prepare the country and its municipalities a war zone. Trying to prepare and coordinate a country while helping the citizens is difficult especially considering the fact that the invasion from Russia was very sudden and had already started. On top of that, many citizens probably didn’t have a safe place to hide or go to. All of these coupled up created a chaotic atmosphere in Ukraine that effected the government’s efficiency and made their job even more challenging.
Tonya Ongko
I believe Putin did not have a Plan B as he was overconfident. Tensions have always existed between Ukraine and Russia. It was a matter of time whether Putin would actually execute his harsh plans into reality. Since he overtook and conquered Ukraine through war, I think he acknowledged that he did not need a second plan as his ideas are already crazy enough and other parties won't jump in that easily. In other words, when a war happens between two countries, other nations don't necessarily intervene unless it is totally necessary and vital as it is a monumental decision. In this case, since Ukraine is considered a new member of the N.A.T.O treaty, the rules don't apply to them. Therefore, when external countries state they will help Ukraine, that does not literally signify protection from war. Additionally, I feel that Putin's decisions are influenced by his ignorance and denial to the world's reactions and existence of other opinions. Its almost as if Putin lacks empathy and humanity; he claims that Russia's invasions won't kill any civilians, but his bombs say otherwise. So, it seems like his decisions are emotional to a limited extent.
There is no question in how decision making under stress is tricky. With the rise of hoax news and conspiracy theories, fake news and inaccurate/misleading information are very probable. They make it even harder for Ukranians to believe invasion warnings since even credible sources can be distorted. Also, they have a major disbelief and rejection to war it seems very unlikely – anyone would think the same. Though when it comes to Putin, doubt becomes certain. They didn't think Putin would be so inhumane and cruel. They may have thought it, but they didn't think it would come to reality. Last, decision making under stress can definitely create unlogical thought processes. People can be heavily swayed by the aroused emotions they may feel at the present moment, but with a rational and calm mind, impulsive decisions can be eliminated. Therefore, Urkrainian people may have not prepared well due to their disbelief, but no one can blame them. Sheltering in subways and bomb shelters are already a blessing for them. Their only priority is to survive now. Countries that also give these refugees a place to live may seem like a small act to some, but it is a huge, unimaginable gleam of hope for these Ukrainian people.
Overall, strategic planners may recognize to devise multiple plans for unforeseen circumstances. However, even the greatest critical thinkers cannot always prepare for everything. Life will always be unpredictable.
Russia has been considered a super power for years now, no one would dare anger Russia and would tiptoe around and potential policy infractions they were making. Just the though of Russia having nuclear weapons and the threat of them possibly using it was enough to keep everyone else at bay. Putin also tested the water by successfully seizing Crimea in 2014 with very little opposition. With the threat of nuclear power and with a dictator like Putin in charge I can easily see his advisors not telling him that majority of Ukrainians did opposed Russia taking over. With all of this evidence, and Putin's ego I believe he did not think he needed a plan B. He was confident that this would be a piece of cake take over.
The Ukrainian government suspected that Russia was planning an invasion since early January, they did sound the alarm, and even though Russia denied it. Even with sounding the alarm, the Ukrainian government didn't layout a plan to evacuate their people nor even layout a solid plan to defend the country and reduce the loss of life. If I were in Ukraine, given the history of Russia an Ukraine I would have left early on, not waited until the end. I believe the Ukrainians that remained were paralyzed with fear, a lot of them didn't think it would be a real war, maybe they thought that it would be another quick take over or didn't have the means to escape.
https://www.wnep.com/article/news/nation-world/ukraine/why-did-russia-invade-ukraine/103-f74502f3-6cb0-4bc1-9ad2-f1a3f4310501
I believe the reason Putin did not have a plan B is partially that he was overconfident about the strength of his military and because he underestimated the resilience of the Ukrainian army and people. Although I believe the main reason is that the people advising Putin were too afraid to tell him this was not the best course of action. I don't think Putin is the type of person that takes dissension well. So everyone just went along with his plan even if they had reservations.
I think the Ukrainians did not have a plan B because they most likely thought this would not go on for so long or would affect them as drastically as it has. Another reason is that many of them did not have anywhere to go. But even if they did, they most likely did not want to leave their home and possessions behind. People create a significant attachment to material items because they hold memories and allow people to be transported back by interacting with such things. We see this all the time during natural disasters. like during Hurricane Katrina. People decided to shelter in place because they either thought the reports were exaggerated, could not bear to part with their stuff, or had no place to go with no financial means of getting out. Staying is also a form of resistance. Because if the people evacuate, they risk losing their country to invaders. Much like what happened during the 1974 invasion of Cyprus. The people of Famagusta fled the city, which allowed Turkey to occupy that territory, even though that was not part of their original plan.
As the leader of a super power nation and being an individual that lacks a transparent source of information Putin's expectations for his invasion were overestimated. The guy shows clear signs of antisocial disorder, holds no regards for human life and has been surrounded by a team of "yes" people that encouraged his actions without taking into account all possible outcomes. I believe Putin did not have a plan B because he underestimated the desire Ukrainians would have to fight back, he believed his army to be stronger and more organized that it truly was. Perhaps he thought that Ukraine would fear him and surrender and his own arrogance blinded him leading him to think he would not need a plan B. He was overconfident, poorly advised, and must be a victim of social disorder or have fallen prey to irrational decision making based off his arrogance.
As for Ukrainians, I believe them, along with most of the world, doubted that a war would take place in our lifetime. In addition to being a member of the N.A.T.O. treaty perhaps gave the nation and its citizens a false sense of protection. Furthermore, the recent rise of fake/faux news might have lead many citizens to undermine the claims of war being made thinking the invasion warnings to be fake, or perhaps they thought the situation would fail to escalate the way it was. But also, even if some came to believe and understand the severity of their situation perhaps they simply had no resources to turn to' many individuals must have struggled financially before the war broke out and quite possibly had to where to go or financial support to move around to another country. Perhaps many simply wanted to hold on to the only inherits they have (home, etc) hoping that the war would end sooner rather than later. Lastly, as we have learned from our text decision-making under stress can complicate the rationale behind the decisions, and making a calm, rational plan B while surrounded by bombs, deaths, arms, etc, must've been too much to cope with for many -specially those already struggling to leave all they knew and owned behind.
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