Fear is a powerful motivator.

Bad is stronger than good.  Bad emotions have more impact than good ones.  Bad information is processed more thoroughly than good information.  And bad impressions and stereotypes are quicker to form and more resistant to change than are good ones.  (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer & Vohs, 2001)

2020 has been a very bad year.  As someone pointed out -- 1918 + 1929 + 1968 = 2020.  In other words, the US is facing a pandemic - like we did in 1918, an economic depression - like we did in 1929 and race riots like we did in 1968.  All at the same time.

With so much to be afraid of, how will people react?

Typically, people react to fear by envisioning the worst possible outcomes and making risk-adverse choices.  (Chanel & Chichilnisky, 2009)

Trump thinks this will work in his favor.  But who in their right mind would want four more years of this?

Only 61.4% of eligible Americans voted in 2016.  Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million.  The presidential election is 153 days away.  Interesting times indeed.

Baumeister, R., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer, F. & Vohs, K. (2001)  Bad Is Stronger Than Good.  Review of General Psychology.  Retrieved May 29, 2016, from http://dev.rickhanson.net/wp-content/files/papers/BadStrongerThanGood.pdf

Chanel, O. & Chichilnisky, G. (2009, December) The Influence of Fear in Decisions: Experimental Evidence. Journal of Risk & Uncertainty.  Retrieved June 3, 2020, from https://chichilnisky.com/pdfs/Chanel_Chichilnisky_Influence_of_fear_in_decision_Definitive%20FINAL.pdf

You can't restart the economy when people are still scared.

Trump seems to think that he can arbitrarily announce the economy is open and everyone will start going out again.  Good luck with that.

Fear is a powerful motivator.  Bad emotions have more impact than good ones.  Bad information is processed more thoroughly than good.  Bad impressions and stereotypes are quicker to form and more resistant to change.  (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer, and Vohs, 2001)

We are hard-wired to remember bad events more than good ones, reliving them over and over again in our minds in an effort to make sure we don't repeat our mistakes. (Kensinger, 2007)

So how can a random statement from a habitual liar make any difference at all?  The answer is that it can't.

The only way to restart the economy is to make people feel safe again.  And that's only going to happen when those death curves decline significantly.  But as soon as people start to go out again they will begin to rise.  So lifting "stay home" now could actually make the economy worse in the long run.

You can't tell people how to feel and right now they afraid.

Baumeister, R., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer, F., Vohs, K. (2001)  Bad Is Stronger Than Good.  Review of General Psychology.  Retrieved May 29, 2016, from http://dev.rickhanson.net/wp-content/files/papers/BadStrongerThanGood.pdf

Kensinger, E. (2007) Negative Emotion Enhances Memory Accuracy.  Association for Psychological Science.  Retrieved May 30, 2016, from https://www2.bc.edu/elizabeth-kensinger/Kensinger_CD07.pdf

No. Worrying won't help.

As we all try to deal with the reality of COVID-19, it's difficult not to be afraid.  Does it help to know that our brains are hard wired to focus on the negative?  

Research shows that our strongest memories are those that are associated with emotion.  And that negative emotions are more powerful and more memorable than positive ones.

Since the primary function of emotion is to guide action and plan for future occurrences, it makes sense that we would remember the bad more than the good since we don't want to repeat our mistakes. (Kensinger, 2007)

But, there's more to it than just that.

Thanks to our preference for using comparisons in decision-making, we are also subject to "concept creep." (Levari, 2018)

That's when we continually lower the bar for what's making us worry.  So while at first you might have been worried if you didn't wear a mask when you went out, now with the continual onslaught of bad news, you might be too worried to go out at all.  Despite the fact that nothing has actually changed.  Because what has changed is your belief about what constitutes dangerous behavior. And that operates on a sliding scale.

A while back, my brother spent the afternoon with Tom Lehrer, and Tom told him this joke...  

A man on death row was on his way to be executed.  As he and the guard walked down the hallway together, the guard asked him "Are you worried?"  And the prisoner replied "Why? Would it help?"

Every time I start to worry I remember that joke, take a deep breath, and soldier on. Give it a try.  It might help. :-)

Kensinger, E. (2007) Negative Emotion Enhances Memory Accuracy.  Association for Psychological Science.  Retrieved May 30, 2016, from https://www2.bc.edu/elizabeth-kensinger/Kensinger_CD07.pdf

Levari, D. (2018, June 28)  Why your brain never runs out of problems to find.  theconversation.com.  Retrieved April 8, 2020, from https://theconversation.com/why-your-brain-never-runs-out-of-problems-to-find-98990

Trump is creating fear because bad is stronger than good

In a previous blog I discussed how creating fear was more effective than telling the truth when trying  to persuade anti-vaxxers to immunize their children. 

http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2018/01/how-do-you-change-perception-fear.html

The principle is called "bad is stronger than good." A seminal study on the subject found that bad emotions have more impact than good ones.  Bad impressions are quicker to form and more resistant to change.  And bad events have stronger and more lasting consequences. (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer and Vos, 2001)

Is it any wonder that we fear them? 

We also remember them better, as our strongest memories are of negative emotional events, which we relive in our minds (and dreams) so we won't repeat our mistakes.

Perhaps the most interesting part is that what we fear need not be rooted in reality.  Tell a lie often enough and people will think it's true.  More about that here.

http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2018/01/if-you-tell-lie-often-enough-people.html

And that's how we got where we are today.

Baumeister, R., Bratslavsky, E., Finkenauer C., and Vos, K. (2001, April 16)  Bad Is Stronger Than Good.  Review of General Psychology.  Retrieved July 4, 2018, from

http://dare.ubvu.vu.nl/bitstream/handle/1871/17432/Baumeister_Review%20of%20General%20Psychology_5(4)_2001_u.pdf?sequence=2