Who are you staying home for?

On April 8th in conjunction with a #stayhome order, the state of New York began a social media campaign - Who are you staying home for?  Launched with celebrity fanfare, it points out that all of us probably have someone over 60 that we care about enough to make sacrifices for. (Gannon, 2020)

Most New Yorker's responded appropriately and stayed home.  As a result, as of April 18th, both new infections and deaths are declining daily.

Which begs the question - what's going on in Florida, Georgia and all the other states reopening that haven't even hit peak yet?  It's hard to believe that people in those states don't care about anyone over 60.  So there must be another explanation.

And there is.  These are the people who believed Trump when he said the virus was a hoax.  (Palma, 2020)

In a February 28th rally in South Carolina, a mere five days after the Chinese closed Wuhan, Trump was out there with his fake news.  He told people that COVID-19 was no worse than the flu, and that the Democrats were exaggerating its fatality to make him look bad. 

You have to give him credit.  He knows the importance of speaking first.

Humans are hard-wired to believe that what they hear is true.  So they believe the first thing they hear about a topic regardless of its source or validity.  And once they believe something is true, they only listen to new data that supports their belief while discounting data that contradicts it.  That's why fake news can be so deadly.

It's also the reason why a Washington state group is suing Fox News and Rupert Murdoch for "deceptive" coronavirus coverage.  The group is requesting an injunction to bar the network from "interfering with reasonable and necessary measures to contain the virus by publishing further false and deceptive content." (Derysh, 2020)

Fox News' response - free speech. 

Really?  They must have missed the part about not yelling fire in a crowded theatre.  And just because they are pushing Trump's agenda, do they think this gives them a license to kill?  Because that is exactly what they are doing.

A recent study showed that watching Sean Hannity is particularly bad for your health.  A comparison in mid-March of his fan base with Tucker Carlson's showed approximately 30% more COVID-19 cases in areas that preferred Hannity.  Not surprisingly an increase in the death rate followed three weeks later. (Derysh, 2020)

To make matters worse, Trump is now actively encouraging people to ignore lockdown.  Perhaps it's time to add him to the list of defendants.  The rest of us will continue staying home for someone we love.

Gannon, D. (2020, April 8)  J. Lo and A-Rod help Governor Cuomo launch ‘stay home’ social media campaign.  6sqft.com.  Retrieved April 22, 2020, from https://www.6sqft.com/cuomo-launches-stay-home-social-media-campaign/

Palma, B. (2020, March 2) Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a ‘Hoax’?  snopes.com.  Retrieved April 22, 2020, from  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-remark/

Derysh, I. (2020, April 7)  Washington state group sues Fox News and Rupert Murdoch over its "deceptive" coronavirus coverage.  salon.com.  Retrieved April 22, 2020, from

https://www.salon.com/2020/04/07/washington-state-group-sues-fox-news-and-rupert-murdoch-over-its-deceptive-coronavirus-coverage/

Derysh (2020, April 21) Viewers of Sean Hannity more likely to die from COVID-19 than those of Tucker Carlson: study.  salon.com.  Retrieved April 22, 2020, from https://www.salon.com/2020/04/21/viewers-of-sean-hannity-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19-than-those-of-tucker-carlson-study/

If you want to control the narrative, you need to create content.

First impressions matter.  And they tend to stick.  In fact, research shows that we are more likely to remember and believe the first statement we hear about any particular subject.  It's called the primacy effect, and it's based on Hermann Ebbinghaus' "forgetting curve" developed in 1885.  (Murre, J. & Dros, J., 2015)

We also know that once a first impression has been formed it is very difficult to alter it as we tend to ignore information that contradicts it.  That is because we are trying to avoid that uncomfortable feeling we get when we have to deal with conflicting beliefs.  We call that "cognitive dissonance."

It's so uncomfortable that we choose to ignore conflicting evidence, and stick with our original belief, even if the argument against it is a strong one.

That's why it is so important to be the first to raise a subject.  The majority of the people will believe what you say.  But it also means that others will not be able to simply take a different stance, but must instead try to convince people to change their minds.  And as noted, that is a daunting task.

President Trump understands this well.  We should be discussing the fact that the deficit is over a trillion dollars for the second year in a row, instead we are wasting our time discussing his latest racist remarks.  Sigh.

The only person who seems to be getting this is AOC.  In her tweets she has been raising important issues like income inequality and forcing others to get back to topics that matter.  Kudos to her. 

Now I just wish the mainstream media would get a clue.  Sure it's good for ratings and circulation increases to make people angry and scared.  But it's not good for this country.  It's time to step up.

Murre, J. & Dros, J. (2015, July 6)  Replication and Analysis of Ebbinghaus' Forgetting Curve.  plos.org.  Retrieved July 31, 2019, from  https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0120644

If you want people to believe you - you must speak first.

Research tells us that we tend to believe the first thing that we hear about a subject, whether or not it is true.  It's part of the primacy effect. 

Then, once we believe something, we use selective perception to hear only new information that supports our beliefs, while blocking out additional information that does not. 

We do this to deal with the upset, known as cognitive dissonance, that occurs when we have a conflict between what we believe to be true and new information. 

Since cognitive dissonance creates such an uncomfortable feeling, we opt instead for denial.  How could something be true when it makes us feel bad?  Better to just ignore it and pretend. ( McLeod, 2014)

It makes perfect sense, but it does provide a significant challenge for people trying to change perceptions.

Consider Paul McCartney, who on October 22, 1969 appeared on the BBC to refute three years of rumors about his death.  He did so by paraphrasing a comment made by Mark Twain in 1897 when he faced a similar situation, saying: "The rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated." 

Sadly, not everyone believed him. (Early, 2017)

McLeod, S. (2014) Cognitive Dissonance simplypsychology.org.  Retrieved January 17, 2018, from

https://www.simplypsychology.org/cognitive-dissonance.html

Early, C. (2017, May 12) October 22, 1969: Beatle Paul McCartney denies rumours of his own death. bt.com  Retrieved January 17, 2018, from

http://home.bt.com/news/on-this-day/october-22-1969-mccartney-speaks-out-about-the-paul-is-dead-rumours-11364011642388