Tell me something good.

I have a new favorite column in Sunday's New York Times.  It's called "The Week in Good News."  These days I can use all the good news I can get.  They should make it a daily feature. :-)

Not to worry though, voice assistants are on the case.  Google just released a new feature for its voice assistant called "Tell Me Something Good."  (Gottsegen, 2018)

Before long we'll all be having conversations with our voice assistants.  And then, we'll be happy to let them make our decisions for us. 

Decision-making is hard work.  What makes it even harder is having too many choices.  And the Internet is all about infinite choices.  So we find plenty of short cuts to make decisions easier.  For instance we may look at only one element - say price, or we could only consider items with a 5 star rating - which indicates that others like the product.  It's what we do.

So, I wasn't surprised to read that 85% of voice assistant users have purchased the item suggested by smart speakers despite the fact that it may have differed from their initial intent.  And, 37% of voice purchasers 18-34 "always" or "often" purchase the first option selected for them by voice assistants. (Faw, 2018)

It's just so much easier to let someone else decide.  Marketers take note.

https://www.nytimes.com/spotlight/the-week-in-good-news

Gottsegen, G. (2018, August 21)  Need some good news? Ask Google: 'Tell Me Something Good' cnet.com Retrieved August 29, 2018, from

https://www.cnet.com/news/need-some-good-news-ask-google-tell-me-something-good/

Faw, L. (2018, August 8) How Brands Can Avoid The Dreaded Voice Assistant 'Dismissal' mediapost.com  Retrieved August 29, 2018, from https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/323358/how-brands-can-avoid-the-dreaded-voice-assistant.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline&utm_campaign=110385&hashid=ybq2buULrntyGS6NfbELk0afrrI

Is a fixed mindset the reason some people still approve of Trump?

For the past few years, Professor Carol Dweck of Stanford, has been doing some interesting research about fixed versus growth mindsets.  Based on her findings, people with fixed mindsets assume that character, intelligence and ability are fixed and cannot change, regardless of what they do.

Assuming that you believe that, and aren't "successful," then what?

Why, look for someone else to blame of course.  It could be immigrants, minorities, women, the media...  In other words, all the groups that the President habitually attacks.  But taking personal responsibility for one's own failures doesn't appear to be an option.

On the other hand lowering standards that one can't meet does seem to be quite popular these days.  Don't want to read the news?  No problem - call it "fake" and now you don't have to.  Not keeping up in school - no problem - you can be the next Kardashian - famous for naked selfies.  Can't lose weight, no problem, fat is in.

Unfortunately the dumbing down of America has consequences, which we can no longer deny.

Hopefully for all of us, the folks with growth mindsets outnumber those whose minds are fixed.

Popova, M. (2007)  Fixed vs. Growth: The Two Basic Mindsets That Shape Our Lives.  brainpickings.org.  Retrieved August 22, 2018, from https://www.brainpickings.org/2014/01/29/carol-dweck-mindset/

90% of sales still happen in-store.

Are you as surprised by that information as I am?  With all the hype surrounding the growth of e-commerce I would have thought it was higher, much higher.

But, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce in 1Q 2018 e-commerce sales were estimated to be $123.7 billion, an increase of 3.9% from 4Q 2017, up 16.4% versus 1Q 2017.  Very impressive.

Until you put it into perspective.  Total estimated retail sales for 1Q 2018 were $1,306.7 billion, an increase of .2% from 4Q 2017, up 4.5% versus 1Q 2017.

So we can see that while e-commerce growth is indeed out pacing growth as a whole we still have a long way to go before digital completely takes over our lives.

Of course those of us who buy almost everything online, (our apartment building gets over 150 packages a day) are left wondering what exactly accounts for the difference.

According to a study from Pew Research while the majority of Americans do shop online (79%) most do so infrequently, with only 15% saying they buy online weekly. Moreover, 65% of online shoppers say they prefer to make purchases in-store.  (Smith & Anderson, 2016)

And while people are happy to buy music, books and electronics online, 67% have never purchased packaged food or beverage products online, and 65% have no interest in ever doing so. (Redman, 2018)

Having just returned from shopping at the local Farmer's Market, I get that.

But unlike other Americans I do buy my health and beauty products online - only 29% do. (Kelly, 2017)

So the things that people buy most frequently - food and toilet paper are not being bought online in great quantities yet.  That certainly explains why Amazon bought Whole Foods. 

But it's also an important thing for marketers to remember as they increasingly spend all their marketing dollars on digital.  Sometimes we get ahead of ourselves.

https://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf

Smith, A. & Anderson, M. (2016, December 19)  Online Shopping and Purchasing Preferences.  pewinternet.org.  Retrieved August 15, 2018, from  http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/12/19/online-shopping-and-purchasing-preferences/

Redman, R. (2018, May 25)  Many Americans unconvinced about buying groceries online.  supermarketnews.com  Retrieved August 15, 32018, from  https://www.supermarketnews.com/consumer-trends/many-americans-unconvinced-about-buying-groceries-online

Kelly, L (2017, May 25)  Key Insights Into Shopper Behavior on Amazon.  cpcstrategy.com  Retrieved August 15, 2018, from  https://www.cpcstrategy.com/blog/2017/05/ecommerce-statistics-infographic/

Is Trump's success due to storytelling? Or is it tribal?

I read an interesting article yesterday about the mystery of why Trump supporters continue to ignore the truth.  Yeah I know - fake news. 

The article hypothesized that Trump is a storyteller and therefore truth is irrelevant.  It made me smile as I have often commented that my husband never lets the truth get in the way of a good story. (Bencherki & Basque, 2018)

Research tells us that storytelling is both key to memory and an extremely effective sales tool.  The seminal study on the subject, done in 2009/10, was called the "Significant Objects Project."  200 random items were bought at an average cost of $1.25 each.  Professional writers added personal stories for each - clearly false as they were not intending to deceive - and then items were sold on eBay - for nearly $8,000. 

http://significantobjects.com/about/

So yes, storytelling works, and it is likely that the mirror neurons created by Trump's storytelling, and reinforced through his tweets are creating a bond with his audience. (2017)

But the article goes on to mention that Trump is in fact offering a place in his successful/high status tribe to the disenfranchised. 

That makes more sense to me.  In previous blogs I have discussed how strong the need to belong is and have hypothesized that there is no such thing as individual thought anymore because the need to belong to the tribe is simply too overwhelming. 

http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2018/03/is-there-any-individual-thought-anymore_14.html

But Trump's storytelling is the key to making them believe that they do in fact belong, so it is indeed one of the reasons why people continue to support him and believe his lies.  Denial is a powerful thing.

Bencherki, N. & Basque, J. (2018, August 7)  Why so many Americans continue to believe that Donald Trump’s lies are facts. rawstory.com  Retrieved August 8, 2018, from  https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/many-americans-continue-believe-donald-trumps-lies-facts/?comments=disqus

(2017, May 8)  The Science of Storytelling & Memory and Their Impact on CRO. conversionxl.com  Retrieved August 8, 2018, from https://conversionxl.com/blog/the-science-of-storytelling-memory-motivation-and-its-impact-on-cro/

Stand by for anger of epic proportions when the Trump tariffs kick in.

People hate to lose more than they like to win.  It's called loss aversion.  And it's the reason why most people are risk adverse.  We would rather have $40 than get $60 if it means we might lose the $40 instead.  And if we are used to having something - say health care - and suddenly no longer do - well, better watch out.

Recently I saw a list of some of the products that will be affected by the tariffs and it's a long one.  Looking at it, I found myself thinking - gee, I had better buy those things I wanted sooner rather than later.  Apparently I wasn't the only one who had that thought, and as a result GDP was up 4.1% in the second quarter. 

But moving purchases forward is not the same as creating additional demand.  Just ask the companies who rely on coupons to drive business.

So one would expect to see a hangover affect at some point down the road - even before we start to reckon with the fact that we have borrowed from the future to pay for the present; and that servicing the national debt will eventually suck the life out of this country.

No, long before that happens people will have to start paying more for beer.  And soda, and soup, and cars, and cell phones and computers, and ... Well you get the idea.  And let's not forget washing machines.  In a perfect example of "unintended consequences" the geniuses at Whirlpool persuaded Trump to institute a tariff on their behalf.  At first everything was rosy.  Their stock even went up 5%.  (Salisbury, 2018)

But now the cost of washing machines has gone up 17% in three months. And, last Monday Whirlpool reported a second quarter loss of $657 million, after reporting a profit in the same period year ago.  Their stock is now down 11% for the year.  (AP, 2018)

But only 54% of Americans are invested in the stock market and I'm going to guess 100% drink beer.  Ok maybe not 100% but certainly more than 54%.  And certainly enough to protest loudly when their favorite beverage costs more.  Standby for more unintended consequences.  It could be epic.  (Long, 2017)

Salisbury, I. (2018, June 26)  All the Products That Will Cost You More Because of Trump's Trade War.  time.com  Retrieved July 31, 2018, from  http://time.com/money/5316029/trump-tariffs-prodcut-prices/

AP (2018, July 23)  Whirlpool: 2Q Earnings Snapshot. cnbc.com  Retrieved July 31, 2018, from

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/23/the-associated-press-whirlpool-2q-earnings-snapshot.html

Long, H. (2017, August 3)  Dow 22,000? Most Americans don't benefit from record stock market gains.  Washington Post.  Retrieved July 31, 2018, from http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-americans-dow-22000-investing-20170803-story.html