Statistics without context = fake news

When the August U.S. unemployment numbers were released, The Wall Street Journal proclaimed "The economy creates another 1.4 million jobs, defying the pessimists."

 

It's not until the second paragraph of the article that they mention that the unemployment rate in August was 8.4%, only down by 1.8% versus July.  And that 238,000 of those new jobs were temporary census workers. (WSJ, 2020)

 

With a bit more searching online you can find out that between 1948 and 2020 the average unemployment rate was 5.76%.  And that in February 2020 it was 3.5%. (BLS, 2020)

 

Now that I have read these details from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report,  I am feeling a bit more pessimistic.  How about you?

 

Have you ever encountered a misleading headline or statistic?  Do you read the entire article or just the headline?  If something seems off do you research it further, or just move on?  Can you think of instance when knowing the context of data has changed your opinion?  

 

What about your news sources?  Who do you trust?  How do you stay well informed?

 

(2020, September 4)  The Jobs of August.  wsj.com.  Retrieved September 7, 2020, fromhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-jobs-of-august-11599260186  

 

(2020, March 11)  19.2 percent of the unemployed had been jobless for 27 weeks or more in February 2020.  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Retrieved September 7, 2020, from  https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/19-point-2-percent-of-the-unemployed-had-been-jobless-for-27-weeks-or-more-in-february-2020.htm#:~:text=In%20February%202020%2C%20the%20unemployment,19.2%20percent%20in%20February%202020.

Where did you hear that?

As discussed last week once you hear a lie three times you start to believe that it is true...

http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2020/08/if-you-tell-lie-three-times-people-will.html

So that means who or what you listen to matters a great deal.  Choose your sources properly or you could be believing all sorts of outlandish things.

A new study from Pew Research found that Americans who get their news from social media are less knowledgeable about a wide range of events and issues in the news such as the Covid-19 outbreak.  But at the same time they are more aware of the conspiracy theory that powerful people intentionally planned the Covid-19 pandemic.  (Mitchell, Jurowitz, Oliphant & Shearer, 2020)

It's not surprising that the disengaged are more likely to believe fake news.  Fake news spreads faster and wider than news based on actual facts.  And people getting their news from social media are more disengaged and therefore more likely to only skim the headlines.  (Lohr, 2020)

But they do need to be careful, least they end up drinking bleach.

Lohr, S. (2018, March 8) It’s True: False News Spreads Faster and Wider. And Humans Are to Blame. nytimes.com.  Retrieved September 1, 2020, from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/technology/twitter-fake-news-research.html

Mitchell, A., Jurowitz, M., Oliphant, J. & Shearer, E. (2020, July 30)  Americans Who Mainly Get Their News on Social Media Are Less Engaged, Less Knowledgeable.  Pew Research Center.  Retrieved September 1, 2020, from  https://www.journalism.org/2020/07/30/americans-who-mainly-get-their-news-on-social-media-are-less-engaged-less-knowledgeable/

If you tell a lie three times people will believe it's true.

Humans aren't properly wired to deal with lies.  From an evolutionary standpoint it wasn't necessary.  Truth was based on our own experiences and actions.  We knew what we heard, saw and did, because we experienced it ourselves.

But now that our experiences have become mostly virtual we are reliant on what others tell us about events. And that's a problem because our brains mistake familiarity for truth.  The more often we hear something the more likely we are to believe it's true.

Research shows that after the third time we hear a lie we believe it's true, even if it contradicts a previously held belief.  And even if it is labeled as false. (Fazio, Brashier, Payne & Marsh, 2015)

It's no wonder then that once the polls showed Trump losing he doubled down on his criticism of mail-in voting despite the fact that he himself votes by mail.  And, as his numbers have continued to sink he has upped the ante to claim that if he doesn't win the election it will be because of fraud. 

You can expect him to keep repeating that lie over and over again until November 3rd.  Because he knows that if he does, some people will be fooled.

Will you be one of them?

Fazio, L., Brashier, N., Payne, B. & Marsh, E.  (2015, August 24)  Knowledge Does Not Protect Against Illusory Truth.  Journal of Experimental Psychology.  Retrieved August 26, 2020, from https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/features/xge-0000098.pdf

Speak first. Repeat often. Don't worry too much about the truth.

Thanks to fake news - 1,282 Americans got the measles in 2019, the worst epidemic in 27 years.

So how did a preventable disease that was declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000 make a comeback? 

It all started with a fraud named Andrew Wakefield.  He published his fake news story complete with false data about 12 children in a medical journal in 1998, in an effort to extort money from vaccine makers.

 

The poorly vetted journal retracted the paper in 2010.  And Wakefield's license to practice medicine was revoked for his "dishonest and irresponsible behavior."  But the damage was already done.  And the repercussions continue to be felt.  (Rao & Andrade, 2011)

Because if you speak first and repeat often, people will believe you, even if you aren't telling the truth.  

 

If you are interested in learning more about how psychology, sociology and anthropology impact decision-making, check out my latest book - now available on Barnes & Noble and Amazon.

Title: Speak first.  Repeat often.  Don't worry too much about the truth.

Author:  PJ Lehrer

ISBN #: 978-0-9897422-4-5

  
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/speak-first-repeat-often-dont-worry-too-much-about-the-truth-pj-lehrer/1137447421?ean=9780989742245

https://www.amazon.com/Speak-first-Repeat-often-truth/dp/0989742245/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=speak+first.+repeat+often.+don%27t+worry+too+much+about+the+truth&qid=1597328469&s=books&sr=1-1

Rao, T.S. & Andrade, C. (2011, April)  The MMR vaccine and autism: Sensation, refutation, retraction, and fraud.  nih.gov.  Retrieved August 18, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3136032/