AMC/OLTL – Take 2

For those of you who haven’t been following along, here’s the background.  Last spring ABC abruptly canceled two long-running soap operas – All My Children and One Life to Live.  When the move was first announced I recommended that the brains behind the move be fired and the shows brought back. Here’s that blog:

Should ABC axe Brian Frons and keep One Life to Live?

http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2011_05_01_archive.html

 

Subsequently Brain Frons was fired and it was announced that the shows were headed to the internet.  Here’s what I had to say about that development:

One Life to Live…will live again!

http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2011_07_01_archive.html

In early 2012, after the internet deal fell apart, I took a look at the replacement shows and suggested that The Revolution was not long for this world – it has since been canceled. 

Can ABC Even Call This A Pyrrhic Victory?

http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2012_02_01_archive.html

So where do we stand now?  Well first of all, General Hospital has been terrific the past few months.  They’ve moved away from the serial killer plots and brought back many fan faves, and even a few of the best faces from One Life to Live.  As a result, ratings have hit a two-year high and GH is now the number two soap for Women 18-49. (Bibel, 2013)  And with Genie Francis’s return in February confirmed and the revival of the ever entertaining Nurse’s Ball coming up, it seems very likely that by the time the show’s 50^th anniversary rolls around in April ABC might reconsider becoming a soap free network. (Kroll, 2013)

But the big news this week is that Prospect Park has revived its plans to bring AMC and OLTL to the internet.  No doubt the decision was due in part to the recent performance of GH.  But it’s also due to the evolution of online tv, which now makes the proposition that much more viable.  

Early word is that the shows will shrink to ½ hour, run 4x a week, and will have limited advertising with heavy product placement.  That approach certainly makes sense based on the extreme loyalty of viewers.  But mostly it made me smile because I had de ja vu – the first soaps, which moved from radio to tv in 1956 were actually produced by Proctor & Gamble.  How interesting it is to see things come full circle.

But the true significance of this development is what it portends for the future.  If the soaps are a success financially using online distribution they will undoubtedly usher in a new era in content development for the internet.  I like the symmetry of that.

 

Bibel, S. (2013, January 8)  Soap Opera Ratings: ‘General Hospital’ Hits a Two Year High in Total Viewers.  tvbythenumbers.com.  Retrieved January 9, 2013, from

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2013/01/08/soap-opera-ratings-general-hospital-hits-a-two-year-high-in-total-viewers/163802/

Kroll, D. (2013, January 8)  Genie Francis to return as GH’s Laura Spencer.  soapcentral.com.  Retrieved January 9, 2013, from  http://soapcentral.com/gh/news/2013/0108-francis.php

 

(2012, December 25)  ‘All My Children’ and “one Life to Live’ Will Return With New Format, Hire Fi-Core Writers.  aceshowbiz.com.  Retrieved January 9, 2013, from http://www.aceshowbiz.com/news/view/00056621.html

Can ABC Even Call This A Pyrrhic Victory?

I’ll admit it.  I miss One Life To Live.  The show was especially terrific in its last few months and General Hospital is still too dark for me to enjoy.  Is it any wonder that The Bold & The Beautiful had its best ratings in three years the week of January 23-27?  I may have to check it out. (Gorman, 2012)

In the meantime though, it seems like a good time to take a look at what’s happening over at ABC.  The Revolution, which replaced OLTL, dropped 1.53 million viewers the same week, down 9% from the previous week, which was also down versus the week before.  Compared to OLTL from the same week last year (long before the cancellations were announced) ABC has seen a 39% decline in total viewers (2.51 million to 1.53 million).    

The Chew, which replaced All My Children last September, is down 6% versus AMC for the same week last year (2.51 million to 2.34 million).  Ratings for Women 25-54 are down 23% and Women 18-49 are down 22%.  So much for sacrificing the Boomers to attract more Gen X. (Marrone, 2012)

Since both The Chew and The Revolution cost less than the soaps to produce, ABC’s profits are probably up and they are all patting themselves on the back.  Except of course Brian Frons who was fired (oops resigned) in December. (James, 2011)

But I have to wonder whether declining audiences can ever be a good thing for a network.  At this point, delivering larger audiences is one of the few things network television has going for it when compared to cable networks who deliver a more affluent and cohesive target with channels like HGTV and Food Network. 

And while a media maven friend of mine said he would just buy more spots on ABC to reach his impression goals, doing that would mean fewer people seeing the ad more often.  I think if I was the decision maker, I would move some of the money I had planned to give to ABC to cable stations instead.  That way I would increase my reach instead of going overboard on frequency – which many advertisers already do.   I guess we will have to wait and see if that’s what happens.

In the meantime, I’ll bet ABC is sorry that they didn’t just cut casts and shrink the shows back to a half hour to lower production costs.  It might have been a win win solution.

In case you missed them, here are the two previous blogs I wrote about this topic.

Should ABC axe Brian Frons and keep One Life to Live?
http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2011_05_01_archive.html
Note the 40% breakeven threshold.

One life to Live…will live again!
http://pjlehrer.blogspot.com/2011_07_01_archive.html
Sadly, the Prospect Park deal fell through in December.

Gorman, B. (2012, February 2).  Soap Opera Ratings: ‘The Bold And The Beautiful’ Hits Multi-Year Highs.  tvbythenumbers.com.  Retrieved February 8, 2012, from

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/02/02/soap-opera-ratings-the-bold-and-the-beautiful-hits-multi-year-highs/118498/

Marrone, D. (2012, February 2).  Ratings for The Chew and The Revolution on ABC – Week of January 23.  tvtakesall.blogspot.com.  Retrieved February 8, 2012, from

http://tvtakesall.blogspot.com/2012/02/ratings-for-chew-and-revolution-on-abc.html

James, M.  (2011, December 2).  More soap opera drama: Brian Frons out at ABC.  latimes.com.  Retrieved February 8, 2012, from

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/12/abc-daytime-drama-brian-frons-out-at-abc.html

Should ABC axe Brian Frons and keep One Life to Live?

5/5/11

On April 14th, ABC announced that after 40 and 43 years respectively they were canceling All My Children and One Life to Live due to declining ratings. According to the story Brian Frons (or was it really Anne Sweeney? ) decided that replacing the venerable shows with another talk show and cooking show makes financial sense. But does it really? (Wiser, 2011)

As a late end Baby Boomer, I have watched both shows since college. For me they are appointment viewing. By that I mean that I tape them and watch them at night when I come home from work. (Are you listening local ABC affiliate who insists on interrupting them for so called “breaking news?”)

I have zero interest in another copycat talk show and if I want to watch a cooking show I will watch either the Food Network or the Cooking Channel. In short I have no intention of watching ABC’s replacement shows. (Although I may check out CBS’s soaps; especially if they keep hiring my favorite actors from ABC.)

So the real question is, will ratings for the new shows drop by over 40% and negate the production savings that Brian was salivating over? Since female Baby Boomers appear to represent over 50% of the current audience, it is entirely possible.

We’ve been told that the new shows “tested well”, but I smell a New Coke fiasco in the making. Did they test the shows against Baby Boomers who currently watch AMC and OLTL? And was it made clear that these shows would replace their old favorites? Why do I think that they did neither? Oh, it must be because of their foolish assumption that an 18-49 viewer is worth more than a 50+ viewer.

Clearly neither Frons nor Sweeney has been reading the abundance of press about the fact that Baby Boomers are still an economic force to be reckoned with. Here are a few articles they may want to check out while they remember that there is a reason why parental health care benefits are being extended to cover children up to age 26!

(2011, March 7) The 6.2 Million Consumers Working Past Retirement Age Have Big Investment Portfolios, Represent Opportunity for Financial Marketers. Scarborough Research. Retrieved May 2, 2011, from
http://www.scarborough.com/press_releases/Retire%20for%20Hire%20FINAL%203.7.11.pdf

Bulik, B. (2010, October 11). Boomers – Yes, Boomers – Spend the Most on Tech. adage.com. Retrieved October 11, 2010, from
http://adage.com/article/digital/consumer-electronics-baby-boomers-spend-tech/146391/

Leydon, T. (2010, July 30) Why your travel and leisure marketing should target Baby Boomers and not Gen X or Y. 5to9branding.com. Retrieved May 2, 2011, from
http://5to9branding.com/2010/07/30/more-evidence-that-your-leisure-marketing-should-target-big-spending-baby-boomers/

Unfortunately, as much as I adore Susan Lucci and Michael Knight, I have found AMC to be unwatchable since its move to California, so I can’t advocate for its continuance. (But if you want to give those two a talk show, I wouldn’t miss it.)

OLTL on the other hand has been on a roll lately. So here is my suggestion. TNT, which has shown its high regard for Boomer women by bringing us The Closer should pick up OLTL and run it in late night so we can all watch it after work. They should reach out to advertisers and incorporate heavy product placements to ease concerns about DVR’s. And, they should air the shows (with placements and commercials) on the internet and mobile devices to maximize the size of the audience.

All in favor say aye!

Wiser, P. (2011, April 15). ‘All My Children,’ ‘One Life to Live’ cancelled by ABC. suntimes.com. Retrieved May 2, 2011, from
http://www.suntimes.com/entertainment/wiser/4836989-421/all-my-children-one-life-to-live-cancelled-by-abc.html