What was plan B?

On February 24, 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine.  By all reports, Putin believed that it would take three days to conquer the country.  Two weeks tops.  The war is currently in its fourth week.

It appears that the Ukrainians were far better trained, better equipped and more determined to resist Russia then they ever imagined.

Meanwhile thousands of Ukrainians are sheltering in subways.  When asked why, one said: "We don't know what to do, should we make a run for the train station or should we stay here?  Maybe it will be over tomorrow."

Anyone who teaches strategic planning for a living knows that when you make a plan, you need to also consider the potential unforeseen consequences of that plan and make contingency plans for that scenario as well. 

To quote Ben Franklin: "Fail to plan, plan to fail."

Gaming simulations have been popular since the mid-90's.  And while I wouldn't expect a Ukrainian civilian to have played one, I am a bit puzzled by the fact that Putin apparently didn't either.

Why do you think Putin didn't have a Plan B - i.e. a plan for what to do if his initial actions were unsuccessful?  Was he overconfident?  Poorly advised?  Or was it something else?  Remember all decisions are emotional.

Why do you think so many Ukrainians didn't have a Plan B and thus have ended up sheltering in places like subways?  Did they think the invasion warnings were fake news?  Did they have nowhere to go?  Or was it something else?  Decision-making under stress is tricky.

 

 

Have you bought something based on a podcast?

 

Podcasts are getting more popular every day. 

 

According to eMarketer the number of monthly US podcast listeners will increase by over 10% this year to 117.8 million.  60% of US Adults 18-34 listen to podcasts, but fewer than 20% of US Adults over 65 do.  That nets out to 50% of US Adults.  Which is why podcasts are a $1 billion industry.

 

Hypotheses about why people like podcasts includes human attraction to "storytelling" and that they can provide "focused relaxation."  But neither of those things lend themselves to merchandising.  (Hotchkiss, 2022)

 

Per Marketing Charts, the top five podcast advertisers in first half 2021 were: BetterHelp, ZipRecruiter, Geico, Hello Fresh, NBCUniversal. (2021)

 

Do you listen to podcasts?  Do you know others who do?  Which ones and why? 

 

Have you bought anything, or visited a website for more information about a brand you heard about on a podcast?  Was it a :30 or :60 ad?  Or was the product/service embedded in the podcast? 

 

 

Hotchkiss, G.  (2022, March 15)  Why Are Podcasts So Popular?  mediapost.com.  Retrieved March 15, 2022, from  https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/372087/why-are-podcasts-so-popular.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline&utm_campaign=125607&hashid=c4hmrOYncfZiBl7GlC72xy3E6dw

 

(2021, November 2)  Who’s Been Spending the Most on Podcast Ads?  marketingcharts.com.  Retrieved March 15, 2022, from  https://www.marketingcharts.com/advertising-trends/spending-and-spenders-118776

Hasbro thinks grown-ups want to play.

 

Hasbro's new CEO played with G.I. Joe and Transformers as a child.  Then he moved on to Dungeons & Dragons and Magic: The Gathering.  He still plays both.

 

Not surprisingly, he thinks there is money to be made targeting adults.

 

According to NPD, people over 12 account for 23% of toy sales in Europe. (2020)   While Mintel tells us that 38% of Americans have bought a child's toy for an adult. (2016)

 

I couldn't find specific data about Lego, but the proliferation of AFOL (Adult Fans of Lego) groups, the LEGO Masters tv show, and the $700+ price tags for branded sets, suggest targeting "stressed out adults" is working for them.

 

Crowdsourcing ideas for new Lego sets has led to the development of the Beatles Yellow Submarine, Central Perk from Friends, and Apollo 11 among others.   It's easy to see the role that nostalgia is playing in these selections.

 

Research has shown that what you like to do in high school you will continue to like doing your entire life.  So it makes sense for companies to observe and capitalize on these behaviors.

 

What childhood habits have you continued into adulthood?  Hobbies, sports, foods, or something else?  What companies have you observed taking advantage of this tendency?  What companies might want to consider following suit?

 

 

(2020, Jan 17)  The Guardian view on Lego for adults: play is a serious business.  theguardian.com.  Retrieved March 7, 2022, from,  https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/the-guardian-view-on-lego-for-adults-play-is-a-serious-business

Macke, D. (2016, December 2)  Not just child's play: Two in three U.S. toy shoppers agree toys and games are for adults, too.  mintel.com.  Retrieved March 7, 2022 from  https://www.mintel.com/press-centre/leisure/not-just-childs-play-two-in-three-us-toy-shoppers-agree-toys-and-games-are-for-adults-too

Deciding to buy.

 

How long does it take you to decide to buy something?

 

According to a new study by NetElixir, over the holidays the time it took for a woman to go from her first website visit to a purchase of fashion or jewelry was 3.08 days.  That had declined from 6.17 days before the holidays. 

 

Sometimes it takes me longer than three days to buy soap.

 

I like to do some research before I buy.  That means I check multiple websites, sometimes over several days.  And sometimes I never buy, even if I've put something in a cart.

 

Another interesting finding is that 70% of online shoppers buy only once from ecommerce sites.  I would be in that group since whenever I can, I go directly to the makers website in order to cut out the middle men, including Amazon. (Schultz, 2022)

 

Amazon Prime members spend $1,968 per year on average.  Non-prime members spend a quarter of that.  Presumably because they are making their remaining purchases elsewhere.

 

How long does it take for you to purchase something online after your first website visit?  Does it vary by category or time of year? 

 

Do you visit multiple sites before you decide or do you go directly to Amazon?  

 

How often do you abandon your cart, and why?  Do follow-up emails affect your behavior?  Re-targeting? What would?

 

 

Schultz, R. (February 25, 2022)  Ecommece Habitues: Women Are Taking Less Time From First Visit To Purchase.  Retrieved March 1, 2021, from

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/371527/ecommerce-habitues-women-are-taking-less-time-fro.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=headline&utm_campaign=125435&hashid=WJG6Pr0n-cKmmAEAvSYYIvL2MQA

Bain, M. (2021, May 3)  Prime has never been more important to Amazon.  Retrieved March 1, 2022, from

https://qz.com/2004369/the-pandemic-made-prime-even-more-valuable-to-amazon/