Can people be persuaded to go against the tribe and vote for Biden?

We all belong to a variety of tribes who influence our behavior.  Belonging to a tribe began as an anthropological necessity.  People who belonged to a tribe were more likely to survive.  That hasn't really changed.  People may no longer be worried about being eaten by wild animals, but they still need back-up when things go wrong.

In order to maintain their place in a tribe, people will often agree to do and say things that go against their own beliefs.  In fact, research shows that 2/3 of people will conform in public. (Asch, 1951)

In an experiment from Brain Games, people who deliberately gave an incorrect answer to go along with the tribe indicated that they did so because 1) everyone else did - peer pressure and 2) I didn't want to be the dumb kid - questioning their own ability to judge when others disagreed.

You can check it out here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IJCXXTMrv8

So how do you get people to resist the pull of the tribe?  You give them permission to defect.  A group called Republican Voters Against Trump has begun running ads in an attempt to do just that.  The ads feature user testimonials from people who voted for Trump in 2016 and now regret what they have done. 

So they are not really asking people to leave the tribe, but rather they are pointing out that the wisdom the of tribe has actually shifted.  It's an interesting approach. 

Time will tell if it works.

Asch, S. (1951)  Effects of Group Pressure Upon The Modification And Distortion Of Judgments. Social Psychology.  Retrieved March 20, 2020, from https://www.gwern.net/docs/psychology/1952-asch.pdf

How come no one ever asked if Trump was too ambitious to be president?

Donald Trump declared bankruptcy four times.  He had no experience in government.  He played a CEO on tv.  How come no one ever accused him of being too ambitious when he decided to run for president?  The answer seems rather obvious.

Everyone hates a strong woman.  Just ask Hillary Clinton - the most qualified person in history to ever run for president.  

Now "big financial backers" have started trashing Kamala Harris for being too ambitious.  (Bernstein, 2020)

That's a good sign that they are scared of her.  And well they should be.  She is a very impressive person - lawyer, attorney general, senator.

But research shows that men are far better at bragging then women are.  And, as a result they get 9.4% more citations, which leads to more promotions and grants down the road.  (Wolfers, 2016)

My advice to Senator Harris - start bragging.  

My advice to Joe Biden - this election is not going to be about money.

Bernstein, J. (2020, July 30)  Is Kamala Harris Too 'Ambitious' to Be Vice President?  bloomberg.com.  Retrieved August 4, 2020, from  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-30/is-kamala-harris-too-ambitious-to-be-vice-president

Wolfers, J. (2016, January 8)  When Teamwork Doesn't Work for Women.  nytimes.com.  Retrieved August 4, 2020, from  https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/upshot/when-teamwork-doesnt-work-for-women.html

People are too scared about the present to worry about what might happen in the future.

We are in the middle of a global pandemic.  As of this morning, 4.3 million Americans have Covid-19 and 149,774 Americans have died from Covid-19.  

People are afraid.  And they are very unhappy that Trump and his tribe have decided to ignore reality.  According to the latest polling average from FiveThirtyEight, Trump's disapproval rate is currently 55.8%, with some polls showing it as high as 61%. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

More notably, only 32% of Americans, a new low, support his strategy for handling Covid-19.  (Bice, 2020)

What strategy?  The only strategy I see is more lies and distractions.  Same song, different verse.

While the rest of us worry about the present, Trump is trying to scare us with his version of the future by running a silly over-the-top commercial about cities without police.  

Since 70% of us live in the present this strategy is doomed to fail. 

But interestingly it may also change minds - in the opposite direction from what Trump is hoping for.  That's because research shows that one of the few ways to persuade someone to change their mind is to present them with absurd claims about their current beliefs.  Apparently it makes people question whether those beliefs were valid to begin with.  (Ariely, 2017)

Bice, A. (2020, July 26)  Poll: Support for Trump’s handling of coronavirus pandemic hits new low.  politico.com.  Retrieved July 27, 2020, from  https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/26/support-for-trumps-coronavirus-strategy-dips-381509

Ariely, D. (2017, November 9)  Dan Ariely on How to Soften Extreme Views.  wsj.com.  Retrieved July 27, 2020, from  https://www.wsj.com/articles/dan-ariely-on-how-to-soften-extreme-views-1510249012

All rich people care about is one-upping their friends.

H.L. Mencken once defined wealth as "any income that is at least $100 more a year than the income of one's wife's sister's husband."

We call this positional concerns. 

The need to belong to the tribe is an anthropological imperative.  To put it simply, those that belonged to a tribe stood a better chance of surviving.  Even more so if they had a particular talent that pushed them to the top of the tribal hierarchy.

This hasn't changed.

So when rich people tell you that if you raise taxes for the rich they won't work as hard, they are lying.  Because taxes are irrelevant to their motivation.  They will still want to one up their friends to prove how superior they are.

And they won't be moving from NYC to Newark anytime soon.

#MakeBillionairesPay